Market Update September 12 2016

Dated: 09/12/2016

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>> Market Update QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "If you want to test your memory, try to recall what you were worrying about one year ago today." --E. Joseph Cossman, American entrepreneur 

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE ... Here are a few things that perhaps aren't worth worrying about. Some folks have been fretting over the low inventory of starter homes. Well, a recent survey reported that there is actually weaker underlying demand for those starter homes. Among those who want to buy a home in the future, 75% said they'd prefer to skip purchasing a starter home and instead go for one that meets their future needs. Specifically, 69% said they'd rather save money to buy a nicer home in the future, than move into a starter home now. More than a third of respondents revealed they want to retire in the first home they buy. Another thing people worry about is the rise in home prices. Yet a leading real estate technology and data firm reported that home prices are finally leveling off. CoreLogic's Home Price Index and HPI Forecast had home prices up 1.1% in July over June, but predict a slowdown to 0.4% monthly growth in August. Similarly July's 6% year-over-year price rise is projected to fall to a 5.4% annual gain in August. Finally, mortgage originations have been up this year, though many worry that it's mostly refis grabbing today's low rates. But Black Knight's Mortgage Monitor Report had purchase loan originations in Q2 up 52% from Q1, to their highest volume and dollar levels since 2007. 

 BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Studies have found success depends on two things: your work ethic and your patience. So, never forget it takes hard work to succeed. And never ever give up. 

>> Review of Last Week FREAKY FRIDAY... For the first three days of the holiday-shortened week, everything was fine on Wall Street, the S&P 500 trading inside a 14-point range. Then came Friday's freaky sell off, the Dow losing 394 points and a 2.2% drop for the week, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each ended down 2.4%. This was blamed on hawkish comments from Fed members hinting at a possible near-term rate hike. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said "a reasonable case can be made for continuing to pursue a gradual normalization of monetary policy." Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said the case for a rate hike has strengthened, though he added the Fed can afford to be patient and deliberate.Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo sounded more dovish, content to wait for inflation to reach the Fed's 2% target. He's also concerned that "ISM surveys suggest some ground for questioning" the strength of the U.S. economy, as if the dismal 1% GDP rate of economic growth isn't evidence enough. Indeed, Tuesday's ISM Services index took a deep dive in August to its lowest level since early 2010, now barely registering expansion in this dominant sector of our economy. Investor worries over tighter money were also fueled when European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi revealed that they hadn't considered extending their easy money policies beyond March. The week ended with the Dow down -2.2%, to 18085; the S&P 500 down -2.4%, to 2128; and the Nasdaq also down -2.4%, to 5126. Draghi's comments made traders feel the ECB was losing its appetite for bond purchases, so Treasuries fell sharply on Friday. Nevertheless, the 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .18, at $107.27. After edging higher the week before, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates headed slightly lower in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 8. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

 DID YOU KNOW?... Ten years ago, smartphones as we know them today didn't exist. By the end of 2016, forecasters say there will be more than two billion smartphones worldwide! 

 >> This Week’s Forecast RETAIL SALES DON'T GO BACK TO SCHOOL, INFLATION, FACTORIES QUIET...Surprisingly, August Retail Sales are expected to shrink--not helped at all by back-to-school buying, even with week-long sales tax holidays in many states. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI are forecast to show consumer inflation quiet, which should keep the Fed quiet as well. Quiet is also the prediction for factory activity, with the Philadelphia Fed Index showing zero growth in that key region.

 >> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of Sep 12 – Sep 16 DateTime (ET) ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpactTuSep 1314:00Federal DeficitAugNA-$64.4BModerateWSep 1410:30Crude Inventories9/10NA-14.513MModerateThSep 1508:30Initial Unemployment Claims9/10263K259KModerateThSep 1508:30Continuing Unemployment Claims9/3NA2.144MModerateThSep 1508:30Retail SalesAug-0.1%0.0%HIGHThSep 1508:30Producer Price Index (PPI)Aug0.1%-0.4%ModerateThSep 1508:30Core PPIAug0.1%-0.3%ModerateThSep 1508:30Philadelphia Fed IndexSep0.02.0HIGHThSep 1508:30NY Empire Manufacturing IndexSep0.0-4.2ModerateThSep 1509:15Industrial ProductionAug-0.3%0.7%ModerateThSep 1509:15Capacity UtilizationAug75.7%75.9%ModerateThSep 1510:00Business InventoriesJul0.1%0.2%ModerateFMar 1608:30Consumer Price Index (CPIAug0.1%0.0%HIGHFMar 1608:30Core CPIAug0.2%0.1%HIGHFMar 1610:00U. of Michigan Consumer SentimentSep91.089.8Moderate

 >> Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Well, Fed watchers now are piling on for a post-election rate hike in December, assuming the economy will be strong enough to take it. Note: In the lower chart, a 24% probability of change is a 76% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Sep 210.25%-0.5%Nov 20.25%-0.5%Dec 140.5%-0.75%Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Sep 21 24% Nov 2 29% Dec 14 59%

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Ralph and Karen Chiodo

THE CHIODO TEAM - Ralph Chiodo Broker / Owner 610-579-9514 Karen Chiodo Realtor / Owner 610-579-9514 Together Ralph and Karen (and their dedicated Team) have success....

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